The weather experts have spoken, and it seems like California might be in for a wet winter this year. Early forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions are on the horizon, bringing with them the potential for above-normal precipitation in the Golden State. In this blog post, we’ll dive into the details of what El Niño means for California’s weather, its impacts, and why it’s not always a straightforward prediction.
What is El Niño, Anyway?
El Niño is not just the name of a beloved animated fish but a climatic phenomenon that originates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in this region are above average, which has a profound effect on global weather patterns. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
The Unpredictable Nature of El Niño
El Niño’s arrival in California doesn’t always guarantee a rainy winter. While the announcement of El Niño this year is considered a strong event, it doesn’t necessarily mean there will be strong global impacts. However, the odds of some level of impact increase, especially in areas with a history of being affected by ENSO. California’s West Coast is known for its variable precipitation forecasts, making it a unique case.
El Niño’s Typical Impact on California Weather
In an El Niño year, California often experiences above-average precipitation, strong atmospheric rivers, and wetter conditions in Northern California. While this might sound like a recipe for floods and landslides, there’s a twist. El Niño’s influence on California’s weather can vary. In some cases, it’s been drier in California, despite the overall tendency for wetter conditions.
The Anomaly of La Niña in California
Contrary to El Niño, La Niña refers to below-average sea surface temperatures. Typically, it results in drier conditions in most of California. However, last winter, when California was under the influence of La Niña, the state experienced drenching floods and record snowfall in the Sierra Nevada. As Jon Gottschalck, the chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at the Climate Prediction Center, explains, “That was an anomaly.”
Forecasting Winter in Northern California
The Climate Prediction Center provides extended forecasts for three-month periods. For the upcoming winter months, here’s what they’re predicting:
- November: Temperature-wise, California is leaning towards being above normal. The northernmost part of the state has a 50 to 60% chance of being above normal, while most of Northern California has a 40 to 50% chance. As for precipitation, all of California has an equal chance of veering above or below normal.
- December and January: Temperature predictions remain fairly similar, but precipitation is forecast to lean above normal. This means it’s likely to be a wetter winter than usual.
Jon Gottschalck reminds us that while the map shows the most likely outcome based on available information, it’s not the only possible outcome. Weather can be unpredictable, so it’s important to stay prepared.
In conclusion, California’s winter weather forecast is far from straightforward, especially when it comes to El Niño. While the conditions for a wetter winter seem favorable, California’s weather can still throw surprises. So, it’s always a good idea to keep an umbrella handy and stay updated on the latest forecasts as winter approaches.