Latest Update: Thunderstorm Potential on Monday Afternoon/Evening

The Sunday was sunny and windy. On a recent Sunday afternoon, the mercury reached a balmy 86 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. That’s a bit higher than the typical high temperature for the Twin Cities on July 9 by a few degrees.

Temperatures on Sunday reached the 80s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with isolated 70s around the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Temperature Trends

The southern two-thirds of Minnesota and parts of west-central Wisconsin should expect low 90s on Monday afternoon; central and northern Minnesota will see highs in the 80s and 70s, respectively.

Monday forecast highs

Temperatures on Tuesday will hover around 70 degrees:

Tuesday forecast highs

The 60s will make an appearance in areas of northeastern Minnesota. Temperatures in the Twin Cities metropolitan area are expected to reach the upper 70s on Wednesday, the low 80s on Thursday, and the upper 80s on Friday.

Thunderstorm Chances

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the northern third of Minnesota, will be spawned by a Canadian cold front that will slowly sag southward Sunday evening and overnight Sunday. Central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin may get a solitary shower or thunderstorm on Sunday night as well.

There is a slight chance (darker green) of severe weather in parts of northern Minnesota on Sunday evening and overnight, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Latest Update Thunderstorm Potential on Monday AfternoonEvening (2)

A marginal risk indicates the possibility of a single isolated severe thunderstorm. On Monday, the area of the country most at risk for severe weather will move southward.

The MPR News network provides up-to-the-minute forecasts for Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The most recent radar updates are available here.

The National Weather Service also maintains websites for the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wisconsin, Sioux Falls, and Grand Forks, all of which you can access by clicking on the appropriate link above.

Thunderstorm Chances Shift South Monday

On Monday, as the cold front slowly moves southward, the region of Minnesota and Wisconsin most likely to see showers and thunderstorms will be the southern half of the state. Midday on Monday through Monday night is when you may expect the most rain and thunder.

The North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration depicts the likely rainfall pattern from Monday midday through Monday night:

NAM simulated radar from noon Monday to 11 p.m. Monday

More locations could get thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening if the front slowed down.

From Monday at midday through Monday night at 11 p.m., the following rainfall pattern is predicted by NOAA’s Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) model:

FV3 simulated radar from noon Monday to 11 p.m
View the Latest Weather Reports

Extreme weather is predicted to hit the Twin Cities and parts of Wisconsin on Monday afternoon and evening, with a minimal danger (darker green) in the southern third of Minnesota.

Severe Weather Outlook Monday AfternoonMonday Evening

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in the yellow coloured area of Wisconsin during that time frame. An solitary severe thunderstorm is possible in an area where there is a slight danger, and scattered severe thunderstorms are likely in an area where there is a marginal risk. The next opportunity for thunderstorms after Monday evening will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

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