Within the next five days, the National Hurricane Center expects one of four systems to develop into the next tropical depression or storm.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. Monday tropical outlook, a large region of low pressure in the central Atlantic is accompanied by a jumble of scattered clouds and rain.
According to NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown, “environmental conditions ahead of the system are now just marginal favorable,” but steady development is projected over the following several days and a tropical depression is likely to emerge later this week.
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To the east and northeast of the Leeward Islands, the system is forecast to move west, then west-northwest, at a speed of 5 to 10 mph. If the Artemis I rocket is unable to lift off from Kennedy Space Center on Monday, NASA officials will need to take into account the tropical threat and have noted the storm’s possible route. The next available times for takeoff are on Friday, September 2, and Monday, September 5.
In the next two days, the NHC estimates a 50% likelihood of development into a tropical depression or storm, and by day five, an 80% chance.
The formation probabilities of the other three potentially interesting systems are currently low. Late tonight, a tropical wave is forecast to form in the far eastern Atlantic, most likely as a result of a system moving off the western coast of Africa.
After that point, Brown says, “some progressive development of the system is possible while it proceeds roughly westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.”
The NHC estimates a 10% risk of development into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and a 30% likelihood over the next five days.
Meanwhile, in the northwest Caribbean Sea, a trough of low pressure is developing and may become established by midweek.
After that, Brown says, “environmental circumstances could enable some sluggish growth of the system” as it moves broadly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
20 percent in the next five days is what experts predict.
Finally, a minor low pressure system can be found in the middle of the Atlantic around 600 miles east of Bermuda. It has only little shower activity, and its growth is predicted to be stifled as it moves south through the central Atlantic, thanks to the strong upper-level winds and dry air. It has a 10% probability of forming in the next two to five days, according to the NHC, and it is forecast to dissipate by midweek.
Danielle would be the name given to the system if it were to develop into a designated tropical storm. In the next years, hurricanes Earl, Fiona, and Gaston will make their names known.
With zero storms having formed since early July, 2022’s hurricane season has produced a meager three named storms so far. This summer could end with no named systems in August. A projection from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August still calls for an above-average year, with 14 to 21 named storms.
With a record-breaking 30 named systems in 2020, the hurricane season was exceptionally active. The following year, 2021, was the third most active on record with only 21 storms. Fourteen named storms are typical in a given year.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, with the peak months often falling in the middle of August and the beginning of October.