Despite a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season might see three tropical depressions form this week.
The National Hurricane Center issued an update on Tuesday evening, saying that a patch of stormy weather several hundred miles from the border where the Atlantic Ocean meets the northeastern Caribbean Sea has an 80% chance of organizing itself into a tropical depression “at the very least” over the next five days, and a 60% chance over the next 48 hours. A tropical depression is the least powerful type of tropical cyclone, a revolving low-pressure system that, depending on its wind speed, might be categorized as a tropical storm or a hurricane.
According to the Hurricane Center, the system still does not have a clearly defined center. The Hurricane Center predicts that during the next three days, it will travel west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph toward the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. Danielle would be the name used if the storm gained the strength of a tropical storm, defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
AccuWeather, a commercial weather forecasting company, says that wind shear close to the Caribbean could prevent a tropical depression from strengthening further.
As the Atlantic settles into its typical peak phase for the production of storms, the system is one of three low-pressure zones being examined for possible cyclone formation. Midway through August through late October is peak hurricane season, with September 10 marking the statistical high point of the season.
A tropical wave off Africa’s west coast is also worth watching, since there is a 40% risk of cyclone formation within the next five days and a 20% possibility within the next two days.
In the event that it does develop into a tropical depression, its duration is likely to be brief.
It is likely that the disturbance will move over colder seas by the end of the week, so additional development is not anticipated, the National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday.
In the middle of the Atlantic, much east of Maryland, is a third intriguing region. Over the next few days, it will likely shift to the east. The likelihood of its emergence is estimated at 30% within the next 5 days and 10% within the next 48 hours, according to forecasters.
The next potential named storm after Danielle would be Earl.
AccuWeather predicts that this August may go without a tropical storm in the Atlantic, making it only the third August since 1961 in which this has occurred.