Republicans are largely predicted to reclaim control of the United States House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections, with betting site PredictIt giving them an 85 percent probability.
The GOP also has favorable chances of retaking the United States Senate, with PredictIt giving them a 73 percent chance.
President Joe Biden would suffer a significant blow if his Democratic Party lost control of both houses of Congress.
According to analysts, this might imply that “all activity shifts to regulation” by the executive branch, including “far more aggressive activities regarding bank KBE, -1.99 percent regulation, energy XLE, -1.98 percent regulation, healthcare XLV, -1.01 percent regulation, and antitrust regulation.”
As of mid-January, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated nine contests as competitive, with ratings ranging from “Toss-up” to “Lean D.” Cook considers the remaining 25 bouts to be uncompetitive, classifying them as “Solidly D” or “Solidly R.”
Democrats have incumbents in four of the nine contested contests, Republicans have incumbents in two, and three have no incumbents running due to their retirement.
The three retirees are Republican senators from North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania: Richard Burr of North Carolina, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. This year, primaries will be conducted to pick the parties’ candidates.
Republican control of the Senate requires a net gain of one member since they presently possess 50 seats. Democrats’ tenuous hold on the 50-50 chamber is due only to Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to cast tie-breaking votes.
“It is indicative of how dire the situation is for Democrats that their best chance of retaining the Senate and limiting their losses in the House is their opponents’ proclivity to nominate candidates who scare suburbanites more than they do,” Matthew Continetti, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, wrote in a recent National Review op-ed.
“However, the Republican Party’s multiple flaws may not be sufficient to rescue the Democrats.”
Democrats took control of the Senate less than a year ago when their two candidates in Georgia upset incumbent Republicans in the state’s Jan. 5, 2021 runoff elections.
Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections, holding 221 seats to the GOP’s 212.